Strong opinions, variably held

Building a frame through opinions

For top managers, the ability to make swift, informed decisions is critical. As the complexity of decisions increases, and the quality of information becomes more disparate and biased, you will need to develop a well-constructed frame—a set of opinions, variably held, that help you assess the world with clarity and purpose.

Building opinions is about creating a mental framework that guides your decision-making process. These opinions form the bedrock of your frame. They enable you to interpolate decisions based on established knowledge rather than extrapolating from scratch each time. With experience, the breadth and depth of your frame expand, allowing you to operate almost on autopilot, delivering high-quality decisions quickly and consistently. This efficiency not only propels you toward your goals but also fosters trust among your peers and team members.

However, constructing and refining this frame is an ongoing journey that hinges on your willingness to iterate and evolve your opinions. Here, the concept of “strong opinions, weakly held” plays a crucial role—not as an endpoint but as a significant step in the continuous process of growth and learning.

Building Your Frame

Building a robust frame is an intentional process that requires effort and reflection. Here are some steps to build your frame:

1. Start with an Opinion: Don’t shy away from forming initial opinions, even in unfamiliar domains. Use your existing knowledge and experiences to inform them.

2. Be Open to Change: Hold your opinions loosely enough to allow for adaptation. Embrace new information and perspectives that challenge your current views.

3. Reflect Regularly: Periodically assess your opinions for internal consistency and alignment with new data. Identify areas where your frame may need adjustment.

4. Embrace Discomfort: Pay attention to situations that don’t align with your frame. These moments often highlight unknown unknowns and offer opportunities for growth.

5. Balance Conviction and Flexibility: Recognize that not all opinions carry the same weight. Some will become stronger over time, while others will fade. Maintain a balance that keeps your frame both stable and adaptable.

The Spectrum of Conviction

To build and enhance your frame over time, you need a multitude of opinions across various levels of conviction. Initially, all opinions should start as strong opinions, weakly held. This means you approach new domains and experiences with a definitive stance but remain open to new information and perspectives that could rapidly reshape your understanding. Over time, as you gather more data, insights, and experiences, these opinions either solidify, becoming more strongly held, or they dissolve, making way for new ones.